شناسایی و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر شکل‌گیری و پیش‌بینی وضعیت آیندۀ مناطق حاشیه‌نشین کلانشهر اهواز با تأکید بر کاربرد آینده‌پژوهی

Abstract
Undoubtedly, in the third millennium, urban poverty has become a prominent social issue and has attracted attention. One of the most obvious manifestations of urban poverty in developing countries is the formation and rapid growth of slums around metropolitan cities. Unbalanced physical growth and development of cities is one of the characteristics of cities and urbanization in developing countries, and one of its consequences is the expansion of marginalized areas around big cities with unbridled growth and ever-increasing poverty. The research method in terms of practical purpose and in terms of a combination of documentary and survey methods and in terms of nature based on the future approach of analytical and exploratory research and for the analysis of the variables, MikMak software was used. Analysis of information and evaluation based on the approach of future research, which is the output of primary studies in the field of developing scenarios in the next stages and developing strategies, planning and policy making to reach the desired scenario. The results of the studies show that in the first stage, 48 indicators have been identified in 8 areas in the suburbs of the city. What can be inferred from the distribution of the variables affecting the future situation of the suburbs of Ahvaz metropolis is that the system has relative stability, from five categories can be identified. As a result of the matrix analysis and the evaluation of the impact plan and the effectiveness of key factors with direct and indirect methods, 12 key factors have been identified among the key factors of housing policies with a score of 330, the most effective factor in improving the future situation of the peripheral areas of Ahvaz metropolis in the horizon of the May 1415 plan.
Keywords: Futuristic Research, Script Writing, Influencing, Drivers, Marginalized People, Structural Analysis, Make-Make.
 
1. Introduction
The increase in population and the rapid growth of urbanization in the past decades have had side effects, including the uneven physical development of cities, the creation of marginal areas, poverty and the decline of living standards, the lack of service centers and, finally, inequality in the availability of facilities. Slum is one of the most obvious aspects of urban poverty that can be seen in most countries, which leads to unbalanced spatial organization and urban structure and environmental destruction. In Iran, about 8 million people of the country’s population are marginalization and this It is a problem that today has affected the big cities of the country, the marginal areas are being formed. that the people of the poor areas cannot easily meet their economic and living needs, therefore they migrate and because they cannot easily adapt themselves to the urban culture in the big cities and they do not have the financial ability to stay in the city, they are forced to The outskirts are driven and they choose the outskirts of the cities for settlement. More than one billion of the world’s population live in slums with low-quality housing and poor living conditions. These neighborhoods outside the framework of the city development document provide the basis for urban instability. The industrial revolution caused an influx of urban migrants in the world. Therefore, according to the importance of marginalization in the country’s urban planning and urbanization system, this research has been done to research the future of marginalization developments from the beginning to the stabilization of settlements in the metropolis of Ahvaz and to develop future scenarios with an emphasis on the scenario approach. that according to the different physical, economic, social, cultural and environmental dimensions and aspects of this project, various theories, methods and tools have been used to collect information and analyze data in each of the study sections. Therefore, in each part of the studies, according to the topic, the appropriate research method has been used. In the research, the Delphi method and the analysis of mutual effects and Micmac software were used, which sought to identify the key factors and driving forces affecting the formation and forecasting of the future situation of the suburbs of Ahvaz metropolis. The peripheral neighborhoods of Ahvaz metropolis, based on a belt from northwest to southeast, include 37 neighborhoods with a population equal to 151,781 people, which accounts for about 12.8% of the city’s population, and about 1765.35 hectares of Ahvaz city, which It covers 9% of the city’s area, which indicates the high density of buildings in these areas and the lack of public funds. Residential units in the form of contract and partial occupancy, which are built at night with the cooperation of family members, without following the rules and regulations of urban planning and building permits. Considering the ever-increasing growth of slums inside and outside the city limits and the problems that have imposed on the city in economic, physical, social and environmental fields, there is a need to review the physical development indicators of the city for the future of the city be.
 
2. Methodology
The current research, with a future research approach, investigates and identifies factors affecting the formation and spatial expansion of the neighborhoods of Ahvaz metropolis. The research is practical in terms of purpose because it provides a suitable platform for the implementation of the future research structure in the marginal areas of Ahvaz metropolis. In terms of its nature, it is a descriptive-analytical method, and by describing and expressing the dimensions and characteristics of future research, it introduces the appropriate structure of future research in the marginal neighborhoods of Ahvaz metropolis. The required information has been collected using the document analysis method, which considers the following two steps in order to answer the research questions. The first stage is by reviewing the specialized texts of the concepts, features and approaches of future studies in order to achieve basic and applicable principles; has been studied in the range. In the second stage, the optimal approach has been selected by referring to experts and specialists, for this reason, a meeting with experts, which includes a group of managers and experts from government departments and departments, municipalities and university professors, has been organized. In this meeting, the results of the initial stage were fully discussed, and the optimal approach was chosen. Micmac software is designed to facilitate structural analysis, which is the French abbreviation of “coefficients matrix of cross-effect analysis” for classification. This software is designed to perform complex matrix calculations of cross-effect analysis. The degree of correlation between variables is measured between 0 and 3. The number zero means no effect, one means a weak effect, two means a medium effect and three means a strong effect. Finally, the letter p means the existence of a potential relationship between the variables. Therefore, if the number of identified variables is N, an N*N matrix of relationships between variables is obtained. Then, the points were entered in the cross matrix to measure the direct and indirect influence of each factor and according to the score of influence and influence of the factors, key drivers are obtained.
 
3. Discussion
At this stage, the key variables are identified based on the direct and indirect classification of the variables according to their influence and mutual influence based on system thinking and by the output of the Meek Meek software. It is worth mentioning that based on the principles and Mikmek software framework, variables do not have the same importance and the variables that are placed above the main diameter of the diagram, because their influence is more than the influence, are selected as key variables, therefore, the variables that are in the first (input or key) region, the second (two-faceted) and indeterminate clusters that They are placed above the main diameter. Based on the studies and surveys conducted in different stages of the research, after examining the theoretical foundations of the situation of the marginal neighborhoods of Ahvaz metropolis, based on the future research structure, the system environment has been analyzed. Also, the results of 48 indicators have been identified in the first stage and the amount and how these factors influence each other on the future situation of the suburbs of Ahvaz metropolis according to the direct and indirect method, and finally, among the 48 factors investigated, 12 main factors as Key factors 10 factors affecting the future condition of the suburbs of Ahvaz metropolis have been selected in both direct and indirect methods.
 
4. Conclusion
In this research, the identification of the most important factors and the amount and manner of influencing factors on the condition of the peripheral areas of Ahvaz metropolis have been carried out using the future research approach. and influential people were used in the category of marginal areas, and the method of structural mutual effects analysis was used to investigate the extent and manner of influencing factors, and finally, to identify the main factors influencing the future status of the marginal areas of Ahvaz metropolis, using Micmac software. At the beginning of the research, the group of specialists, presenters and influential people in the field of study were identified after selecting the target group according to different methods of questioning (questionnaire, interview, etc.), the process of questioning and extracting their opinions based on the subject under study, the initial summation has been done to identify 96 effective factors. In the next step, the initial summation the judging panel was entrusted to a group of specialists and experts, and finally, after monitoring the variables by summarizing, combining and verifying them, it was finally reduced to 48 factors in 8 areas. In order to extract the main factors affecting the future state of the environment under study, they were analyzed Based on the results of the present research, solutions are presented as follows, which attention can be an effective step in organizing the marginal neighborhoods and preventing the formation of new neighborhoods in the metropolis of Ahvaz. Attention to the comprehensive housing plan in the city and planning for preparing urban land and construction of suitable housing for vulnerable groups, organization of real estate consulting firms and double supervision of rent-seeking and formal transactions, construction of a green belt around the city and its protection, determining the assignment of barren lands or public uses that are susceptible to seizure or rent-seeking Determining the rules of construction in the boundaries of the cities, organizing the villages located in the boundaries of the cities, coherent and unified management in the boundaries and boundaries of the city.